Monomoy Students Conduct Exit Poll, Find Close Race for Governor

Press Release: Monomoy Students Conduct Exit Poll, Find Close Race for Governor

November 4, 2014

Students from the United States Government classes at Monomoy Regional High School today conducted an exit poll of voters at the Harwich Community Center. In all, 55 students participated and 324 voters were interviewed about nine of the contested races on the ballot, and five of the ballot questions, asking also about issues, advertising, and approval of the current president and governor.

Our totals gave a slight edge to Coakley over Baker for governor – 48% to 46%. In other state races, Healey led Miller for Attorney General 59-41 and Goldberg led Heffernan for Treasurer 52-48. In Congressional races, Markey led Herr for the Senate 63-37, and Keating led Chapman for the House 54-46. For state Senate, Wolf led Beaty 66-34. In county races, O’Keefe led Barry for District Attorney 57-43, Cakounes led Forest for County Commissioner 57-43, and McManus led Howell for the Assembly of Delegates 57-43.

For the ballot questions, Question 1 led 53-47, Question 2 trailed 43-57, Question 3 trailed 47-53, and Question 4 led 61-39. We also asked about Question 5 which was way ahead at 74-26.

There are of course limitations in trying to predict the overall races based on a poll in one town, and this would seem especially true of the race for governor. If we look at independent voters, which sometimes is a more effective way to predict the overall result, Baker led Coakley 49-41. For the other races, independents voted the same as the overall result, with the exception of the Treasurer race where Heffernan led Goldberg among independents 45-40.

Looking at the race for governor in more depth, we can see that 51% of respondents cited economic issues as most important, and Baker led among these 58-37. The 30% that cited programs such as health care, the environment and education favored Coakley 57-37. Perhaps surprisingly the 33% that cited the candidates’ character or values favored Coakley 50-35, at odds with the sometimes cited Baker likeability factor. Men favored Baker 50-44, and women favored Coakley 49-41. Women were overrepresented in our poll (60%) so if we average the gender results we get nearly a dead heat. If this is typical, it may be a long night waiting for a result in this contest.

If Coakley does win, it may be due to Deval Patrick’s coattails. In our poll, 54% approved of his performance, 27% disapproved, and 19% were undecided or in between. Those approving of Patrick voted 65-25 for Coakley, those who disapproved favored Baker 70-17, and those in between favored Baker 59-34. Patrick’s favorability contrasts with President Obama’s – 54/27/19 v. 46/44/10. This factor seems to be helping Coakley in a race most are predicting she will lose. Interestingly, age did not seem to affect this race much in our poll. Young voters (under 40) were split even 49-49, middle aged voters (40-60) favored Coakley slightly 48-42, and older voters (over 60) favored Baker 46-45.

If Baker wins, it may be due to more effective advertising. We asked whether voters had been influenced by media ads, or influenced by mail or calls received at home. The vast majority reported not being influenced by either. But the 18% that reported being influenced by media ads favored Baker strongly 59-23, and the 9% that reported being influenced by mail or calls favored Baker 52-22. So the Baker campaign efforts in these areas seem to have been much more effective. A disproportionate percentage of respondents in these two categories voted for one of the independents (18% and 26%, compared to 6% overall) which seems to indicate that many who were influenced were irritated by them and rejected both major party candidates, a result that matches many anecdotal comments.

We would as always like to thank Anita Doucette, Harwich Town Clerk for supporting our efforts, and all the voters who took the time to talk with us. Complete results will be posted later tonight at hhsgovt.blogspot.com.

Ninth District Congressional Debate

On October 29, 2014, the U.S. Government students at Monomoy Regional HS hosted a debate for the candidates for the Massachusetts Ninth Congressional District - Rep. William Keating (D) and Mr. John Chapman (R). This was the eighth debate that we have hosted since 2006 (formerly as Harwich HS). This was the most spirited debate we have yet witnessed and both candidates pulled no punches. The students got a good look at the rough and tumble of modern national politics. Our student moderator, Kalin, deserves a purple heart for the shrapnel she was catching on stage. She did a magnificent job trying to keep the candidates on task, and we got through almost all of our questions - covering a broad range of national issues.

Here are a couple of reviews I received by email:

"I want to congratulate your young team on running the debate most competently. The moderator did an excellent job and the questions were intelligently stated and relevant."

"Your class and school did a magnificent job today. The debate was impeccably run. The questions were very well written, selected and posed - there was no "edge" to any of them, and in just an hour, they covered the range of issues our nation faces very well. You created a format and staging (eg standing with no podiums) that fostered a very effective "head-to-head" debate. The differences between the candidates were surfaced quite clearly. Thank you! That was a great public service. Political debates often are tame, or get side-tracked - this was one of the most effective I have ever seen, anywhere. Well done, Monomoy High!"

We also made the front page of the Cape Cod Times. A quote: "U.S. Rep. William Keating, D-Mass., and Republican congressional nominee John Chapman took off the kid gloves Wednesday during a debate at Monomoy Regional High School, trading blows in a spirited face-to-face that occasionally required the teenage moderator to remind them to heed time limits and not interrupt one another....As the students turned to one another and grinned, taking in the blood sport of politics..."

You can watch the debate here.

Emmanuel Habimana Visits HHS

On Monday, March 24, 2014, Emmanuel Habimana, a survivor of the Rwandan genocide visited Harwich High School as part of his national tour on its 20th commemoration sponsored by World Outside My Shoes. He spoke to five groups of classes in the library, discussing his experiences before, during, and after the genocide. He gave us a sense of the buildup to the genocide during which there were many massacres and his family moved twice to try to find a safe area. Once it began, he escaped attacks by hiding different places and when he was found by soldiers in a school desk he pretended to be a Hutu taking on the identity of a family of former neighbors. He eventually walked alone to Zaire ending up in a camp there. After the genocide he was stuck in that camp for another year before returning to Kigali and being reunited with his surviving siblings. In the 20 years since he has attended school, graduated from university, entered law school, and co-produced a documentary about the orphans of the genocide called Komora: To Heal which we were able to view excerpts. Watch the trailer here or a video from one of the class presentations here. Thank you Emmanuel for visiting and sharing with us. This was an eye-opening experience for our students. 

After school, Emmanuel was interviewed by Heather Goldstone for The Point on WCAI. Check out the broadcast streamed here.Or watch a video of the broadcast here.