November 4, 2014
Students from the United States Government classes at Monomoy Regional High School today conducted an exit poll of voters at the Harwich Community Center. In all, 55 students participated and 324 voters were interviewed about nine of the contested races on the ballot, and five of the ballot questions, asking also about issues, advertising, and approval of the current president and governor.
Our totals gave a slight edge to Coakley over Baker for governor – 48% to 46%. In other state races, Healey led Miller for Attorney General 59-41 and Goldberg led Heffernan for Treasurer 52-48. In Congressional races, Markey led Herr for the Senate 63-37, and Keating led Chapman for the House 54-46. For state Senate, Wolf led Beaty 66-34. In county races, O’Keefe led Barry for District Attorney 57-43, Cakounes led Forest for County Commissioner 57-43, and McManus led Howell for the Assembly of Delegates 57-43.
For the ballot questions, Question 1 led 53-47, Question 2 trailed 43-57, Question 3 trailed 47-53, and Question 4 led 61-39. We also asked about Question 5 which was way ahead at 74-26.
There are of course limitations in trying to predict the overall races based on a poll in one town, and this would seem especially true of the race for governor. If we look at independent voters, which sometimes is a more effective way to predict the overall result, Baker led Coakley 49-41. For the other races, independents voted the same as the overall result, with the exception of the Treasurer race where Heffernan led Goldberg among independents 45-40.
Looking at the race for governor in more depth, we can see that 51% of respondents cited economic issues as most important, and Baker led among these 58-37. The 30% that cited programs such as health care, the environment and education favored Coakley 57-37. Perhaps surprisingly the 33% that cited the candidates’ character or values favored Coakley 50-35, at odds with the sometimes cited Baker likeability factor. Men favored Baker 50-44, and women favored Coakley 49-41. Women were overrepresented in our poll (60%) so if we average the gender results we get nearly a dead heat. If this is typical, it may be a long night waiting for a result in this contest.
If Coakley does win, it may be due to Deval Patrick’s coattails. In our poll, 54% approved of his performance, 27% disapproved, and 19% were undecided or in between. Those approving of Patrick voted 65-25 for Coakley, those who disapproved favored Baker 70-17, and those in between favored Baker 59-34. Patrick’s favorability contrasts with President Obama’s – 54/27/19 v. 46/44/10. This factor seems to be helping Coakley in a race most are predicting she will lose. Interestingly, age did not seem to affect this race much in our poll. Young voters (under 40) were split even 49-49, middle aged voters (40-60) favored Coakley slightly 48-42, and older voters (over 60) favored Baker 46-45.
If Baker wins, it may be due to more effective advertising. We asked whether voters had been influenced by media ads, or influenced by mail or calls received at home. The vast majority reported not being influenced by either. But the 18% that reported being influenced by media ads favored Baker strongly 59-23, and the 9% that reported being influenced by mail or calls favored Baker 52-22. So the Baker campaign efforts in these areas seem to have been much more effective. A disproportionate percentage of respondents in these two categories voted for one of the independents (18% and 26%, compared to 6% overall) which seems to indicate that many who were influenced were irritated by them and rejected both major party candidates, a result that matches many anecdotal comments.
We would as always like to thank Anita Doucette, Harwich Town Clerk for supporting our efforts, and all the voters who took the time to talk with us. Complete results will be posted later tonight at hhsgovt.blogspot.com.
