Some numbers and my survey data

A couple follow-ups on the final results. I won’t rehash all the numbers (see http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/04/iowa.caucuses/index.html) but the results reflected the energy we saw in the rallies (expect Edwards didn’t do as well as we thought).

At the various rallies we attended, I interviewed 25 Iowans about the caucus. This was hardly a scientific poll interviewing so few among those who took the time to attend a rally. However I think some of the trends I found are interesting. There was wide support for the current system, with 88% supporting Iowa’s first in the nation status, and 60% supporting the caucus system over a primary (12% preferring a primary and 28% unsure). I didn’t interview people at all the rallies, so my candidate preference numbers aren’t meaningful, though the Clinton rally was the only place where most of the people I interviewed didn’t identify themselves as Clinton supporters – perhaps an indication of the soft nature of her support which is one reason why she lost. The issues people identified were interesting – 48% cited the war/foreign policy issues as important Health care next at 24% with immigration and character issues each getting 16% (some people cited two issues). Among Democrats, 50% cited health care, and 40% cited the war. Among Republicans 50% cited the war and 25% cited immigration. Bush was divisive as 90% of Democrats disapproved of the job he has done as president, while 67% of Republicans supported him. Among demographic variables, men and older voters were more Republican and women younger people were more Democratic. This matches entrance poll data – see http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/01/04/547795.aspx or http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/03/iowa.dems/ for Democratic data.

It’s on to New Hampshire and we will be there on a field trip exit polling in and around Nashua. More to come from NH!