It's morning in America! In Iowa at least, and quite warm at that - high 20's. An article in the Washington Post (I think) claimed it was 6 degrees at caucus time, it was around 30 actually, a merciful break from the cold on Wednesday (high around 10).
What a great experience this has been! In two days we got to attend seven rallies, a caucus and a victory celebration. We met several major political figures, and got interview and tailed by a New York Times reporter. I interviewed a score of Iowans about their views and waded into the blogosphere. My teaching of caucuses and presidential selection will now be greatly informed by personal experience.
in the end, both winners were the ones with the most conciliatory tones. This may be a testament to the perception, probably right, that to win here you have to be "Iowa nice." People point to 2004 when Gephardt and Dean seemed to destroy each other dropping from 1-2 to 3-4 after they attacked each other. This may or may not carry on to future states - probably not - as some candidates begin to get desperate, they will use their ammo. McCain and Romney at least already are in New Hampshire. But this year, I think more than just Iowa is looking for unity and humility in our politics.
The turnout was huge here, a record - 239,000 Democrats (basically doubling their 124,000 in 2004) and 115,000 Republicans (compared to 88,000 in 2000 - the last time the Republican side was contested). This is about 15% of eligible voters - a high number for a caucus, but much lower than the contested primaries will get. The 2 to 1 ratio for the Dems bodes well for them in November, in a state usually considered Red.
Historically, the winners of contested races here have gone on to win the nomination only half the time since Iowa gained its first in the nation status in 1972. So we obviously can't coronate them yet. And while it is impossible not to be enmeshed in the moment after two days here, it feels like the people here chose the candidates that have the intangibles to win the nominations.
Lastly, I will confess to being swayed by my time here to support Obama. I think this is the most qualified group of candidates assembled in my lifetime, but an Obama victory would be seismic and transformative, and I think our politics need a transformation. I believe that an Obama victory would stand the greatest chance of healing the nation's partisan divide, and redefining our politics along more pragmatic and authentic lines. I may well be wrong, but coming to Iowa has pushed me off the fence.
1 comment:
It must be said, and the students really need to appreciate this, that Obama may be one of the epochal political orators of this past 50 years.
His oratory - grounded in a 'preaching' tradition, combines the vision and grand analogies of a John F. Kennedy with the cadences and innate drama of Martin Luther King, Jr.
He's better, in my view, than Reagan and Clinton, the two best Presidential orators since Kennedy's death.
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